With the Image of Deterrence: Operation Atlantic Resolve

Abstract

As deterrence is to become a new pillar of Operation Atlantic Resolve and European Reassurance Initiative from 2017, the paper offers an analysis of these U.S. security programs through the lens of deterrence theory. Through the empirical analysis of ERI and OAR, the author argues that these steps create only the false image of deterrence, while the very essence of the increased U.S. presence in Europe is still about assurance; nevertheless, this strategy would not be fully inefficient for two reasons. On the one hand, it helps to avoid the return of Cold War era uncertainty with its negative spirals and unintended consequences, while on the other hand it pushes European allies towards a more nuanced defence policy and does not disrupt the process of U.S. rebalancing either.