Unemployment Development in the Group of Visegrád Countries as a Result of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Abstract

In our study, we examine the development of unemployment data in the Visegrád countries. The topicality of our study was given by the coronavirus disease, which was widening into a pandemic and a global economic crisis in 2020. In our research, we used the ARIMA modelling procedure using the database of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Using a decade-long analysis of the time series, we used the model to make a forecast of the development of unemployment, and then we compared our forecast with the actual data measured as a result of the pandemic. Reviewing the results, we examined the reasons for the different successes of countries in the fight against unemployment. We found that key conditions for success include disciplined civil defense, compliance with restrictions, state involvement, and a successful vaccination campaign; the latter contributes to the relaunch of the economy. Our present research reviewed the effects of government intervention and vaccination, finding that the strongest impact is on the main direction of government involvement in the development of unemployment.