How Decisive Are the Copenhagen Criteria for EU Enlargement?

Abstract

The article analyses the significance of the accession criteria in the context of recent EU enlargement negotiations, particularly during heightened geopolitical circumstances triggered by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The accelerated EU enlargement process, evidenced by the swift membership applications from Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, and the even quicker decision to open accession negotiations for two of them, inspires an exploration of the binding elements, specifically the Copenhagen criteria, integral to the accession negotiation process. The study aims to examine the numerical development and changes in the conditions and criteria necessary for EU membership in ten candidate and potential candidate countries. The analysis focuses on fulfilling essential conditions, with emphasis on convergence, assessed using GDP per capita and growth rates, as well as the rule of law and democracy criteria measured through the Worldwide Governance Indicators.