Sustainable Disaster Response Management Related to Large Technical Systems

Abstract

Numerous investigations assess the technical, technological, and managerial aspects of disaster response related to large technical systems. This paper deals with the possibility of synthesizing these aspects in a disaster response methodology, thus combining the technical, technological methods, tools, and software with the art of management. Its objective is to develop a preliminary methodology that supports the response management decision making processes related to earthquake-damaged large technical systems. The introduced methodology is demonstrated with the example of railway systems. It utilizes a combination of (i) a probabilistic model of railway system damage caused by earthquakes, (ii) a Markov model related to the damage and recovery phases, (iii) a probabilistic model of aftershocks, (iv) a statistical model of secondary effects, (v) impact models of management support actions, and (vi) response process management supported by a Markov Decision Process. The simulation results validate the concept. Based on these research results, the authors recommend that the described preliminary response management approach be further specified and implemented in disaster management procedures.