COVID-19 Crisis and Supply Side Bottlenecks in the EU. Shorter and Longer Term Prospects

Abstract

"The COVID - 19 shock affected the global economy mainly through the collapse of demand, labour supply and industrial output, supply chains, com- modity prices, international trade and capital flows. From the second half of 2020, various bottlenecks (logistical disruptions"," shortages of raw materials and parts) in the EU economy have had a growing impact on growth. Following the recurrent pandemic shocks, the war shock has caused further severe supply - side disruptions from February 2022 onwards, in particular in raw materials markets (including energy sources and agricultural raw materials) and international logistics. Supply shortages in the EU have not only a one-off but also a ripple effect throughout the economy. Spill-over effects across Member States are of great importance. Together, the shortages of production inputs can have a signific ant negative impact on output and the recovery of the economy. At the same time, supply - side shocks can have a significant impact on the restructuring of supply chains, the deepening of green and digital transformation, and productivity growth . "